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ALI – AYALA LAND INC – Technical Analysis – November 18, 2016

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Looking at this Down Fibonacci plotted on the chart of Ayala Land (PSE:ALI), you see that the support near the 138.2 percent Down Fibonacci extension was respected as ALI’s support.

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Chart - November 18, 2016

Last November 17, 2016, ALI managed to recover and trade above its 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, its recovery above the 10-day SMA is not enough for me to say that it’s completely out of the bearish territory as far as SMAs are concerned.  ALI must break out above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement for it to go back above the 200-day SMA. Long-term investors often consider the position of the stock above the 200-day SMA as an indicator that the stock is bullish on a long-term trend.

I did not capture a screenshot of the Weekly Chart of ALI, but I’d like to share with you that ALI has finally registered a green weekly candlestick (for November Week 3) after three consecutive red weekly candlesticks. On the other hand, ALI needs to register a higher rebound for us to see a green monthly candlestick.

The recovery of ALI’s share price could have been driven by the 14.45 percent growth in its net income compared to last year’s record. The 3Q2016 earnings report of ALI was released last November 9, 2016. The positive disclosure did not materialize perhaps due to the global bearish market sentiment as the ripple effect of the recently-concluded election in the United States.

Top 10 Players’ Sentiment

Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-02-2016 to Nov-18-2016 at 03:30PM:

  • 27 out of 117 participants or 23.08% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 0 out of 117 participants or 0.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 34.0455
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 34.1040

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Top 10 Players - November 18, 2016

Online Foreign Brokers’ Transactions

From November 2, 2016 to November 18, 2016, 11 out of 11 active online foreign brokers traded ALI.

  • Online foreign brokers’ Buy Average: PHP34.04
  • Online foreign brokers’ Sell Average: PHP34.14
  • Number of net buyers among the participating online foreign brokers: 7 out of 11
  • UBS bought the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP787,817,430.00.
  • DEUTSCHE sold the biggest number of shares among online foreign brokers amounting to PHP1,832,977,625.00.

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Foreign Brokers - November 18, 2016

Foreign Fund Flow

On a 30-day trading period, ALI is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP2,632,914,894.00.

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Foreign Fund Flow- November 18, 2016

Risk Level

ALI has already entered the moderate risk level based on my proprietary risk level indicator.

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Volatility - November 18, 2016

Volume

ALI is an index stock. It’s quite difficult to catch illiquid index stocks.

ALI - AYALA LAND INC - Volume - November 18, 2016

Conclusion

If you’re a long-term investor, add fundamental criteria in your buy case. Do you find it attractive if the company has more positive net income than negative net income reports? Check the previous quarterly earnings reports of ALI. You may use the technical analysis to identify your entry and exit points.

On the other hand, most short-term traders do not care that much about fundamental criteria. Their focus is on the chart and nothing but the chart. Whether your style is buying on a breakout or waiting at the potential bottom of a stock, it is never a bad thing to be proactive in setting up your trailing stop-loss price.

I’ve already provided the buy and sell averages of the top 10 players and the 11 online foreign brokers. Feel free to consider those price points in your data-driven decisions. You already know that none of the brokers who traded ALI registered a 100 percent selling transaction on a month to date basis. You already saw on the chart that foreign investors have started registering green bars on the chart once again. Despite all these positive facts, you may also want to consider that ALI has just garnered a moderate risk level based on my proprietary risk level indicator.

This is how we want to help you in the Stock Signals. We will inform you about what’s happening with the stock, but we will not deliberately and prematurely influence your decision by throwing highly suggestive words. We will lay down the positive and negative facts about the stock, but we will not insinuate a decision that is not aligned with your personal investment goals, investment horizon, and risk appetite.

I strongly believe that all analysts should be neutral with their choice of words because just by a slight hint of bullishness or bearishness in our personal judgment, most people will follow suit and disregard their personal investment goals, investment horizon, and risk appetite. Our goal is to train you in the Stock Signals on how you can digest these pieces of information and be able to make a sound and intelligent decision for yourself.

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This Post Has 2 Comments
    1. Hi, Lillian.

      Thank you for the feedback! Please don’t forget to tell your friends and family to like and register with Stock Signals Philippines!

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