IRC Technical Analysis: What to Do With This False Breakout?

Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. (PSE:IRC) is priced at ₱1.5 per share, down by 2.6 percent, as of 03:30 PM GMT+8 on October 29, 2019.

The Total Turnover Value is at ₱30,635,900.00. The local traders are the main drivers of IRC today.

Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. (IRC) - Daily Chart EOD - 10.29.2019

Foreign investors registered a Net Foreign Selling worth ₱1,194,580.00. They are net sellers year-to-date, but their participation is insignificant.

The immediate support is near ₱1.30, while the immediate resistance is near ₱1.55.

My 10SMA-MACD combo is bullish.

IRC’s risk level is moderate due to its historical volatility score of 66.8 percent. For new traders, I advise that you prioritize checking those stocks that have a low to moderate risk level.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: 1.5
VWAP: 1.583251
Most Traded: 1.61 – 1.59
Most Voluminous: 1.61 – 1.59

Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. (IRC) - Trade Volume Distribution as of EOD - 10.29.2019

The Momentum Power Indicator of IRC is bearish because all 4 elements are bearish. The downward movement of the price is more than likely to continue as of the time of writing this analysis.

True Market Sentiment Analysis – EOD

True Market Sentiment on IRC as of Oct-29-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 1.500.
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.5766
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.5828
Bonus Info:
7 out of 43 participants or 16.28% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 43 participants or 23.26% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Philippine Infradev Holidngs Inc. (IRC) - True Market Sentiment EOD - 10.29.2019

True Market Sentiment Analysis – WTD

True Market Sentiment on IRC from Oct-28-2019 to Oct-29-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 1.500.
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.5498
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.5542
Bonus Info:
5 out of 51 participants or 9.80% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
13 out of 51 participants or 25.49% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Philippine Infradev Holidngs Inc. (IRC) - True Market Sentiment WTD - 10.29.2019

True Market Sentiment Analysis – MTD

True Market Sentiment on IRC from Oct-01-2019 to Oct-29-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 1.500.
True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.4911
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.4666
Bonus Info:
10 out of 62 participants or 16.13% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 62 participants or 16.13% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Philippine Infradev Holidngs Inc. (IRC) - True Market Sentiment MTD - 10.29.2019

Have you already watched the video-on-demand version of my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market? I discussed in that video how I find the best candidate stocks for your watchlist, how to know the true market sentiment, how to know if the trend is more than likely to continue, how to find confirmed buy signals, how to find the best price range where I buy, and how I sell more logically and less emotionally. After watching the video, you will know how to analyze exactly how I analyze. Click here for more information.

Recommendations

Is there a logical reason to pre-empt your trailing stop or reduce the percentage of risk in the calculation of your trailing stop?

Let’s check the ADX to see the momentum to the upside. ADX sits at 19.15 which is still not that strong. Therefore, yes, you can consider adjusting your trailing stop. Consider the huge selling volume today. IRC failed to maintain its price above the breakout point of ₱1.55.

If you choose to hold your position instead of adjusting your percentage of risk, do it if the price is still moving above your trailing stop. Sell once your trailing stop is hit. The chance of testing ₱1.30 will be higher once IRC breaks below  ₱1.43. For one, the end-of-day (EOD) and week-to-date (WTD) True Market Sentiment is neutral. That’s a sign of a weakening upward momentum.

Please make sure that you do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop every time the price goes higher. You may use my Trailing Stop Calculator.

If you are planning to enter a new position on this stock, I suggest that you postpone that plan for the meantime until the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish. Once both conditions are met, you can calculate your reward-to-risk ratio. You can use my Reward-to-Risk Ratio Calculator. If you’re happy with that ratio, then, you can test-buy within the dominant range. Calculate your trailing stop immediately once the stock enters your portfolio.

Regardless whether you already have a position on this stock or you’re yet to enter a new position, it’s best that you ask for our latest analysis and recommendation in our Private Clients Forum so we can tell you if the technical buy indicators are still intact. Also, this allows us to alert of you the newest dominant range of the stock so you can buy strategically. If you’re a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics, you have an access to our Private Clients Forum.

About the Author
Jaycee De Guzman is an online business strategist, an equity analyst, an entrepreneur, and a computer scientist by profession. Visit his website at www.jayceedeguzman.com.

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