I recommended Alliance Select Foods Int’l, Inc. (FOOD) to our EquiPicks subscribers on August 29, 2018. We traded this name twice. The estimated after-fees profit for the first round was between 20 to 23 percent. The estimated after-fees profit for the second round was between 15 to 18 percent. Would you like to know how we traded this stock? Let’s do that. However, I am not going to post every single day-to-day update. I will just post the highlights. I don’t want this post to be super lengthy.

But first off, I’d like to emphasize that I am documenting our trades not for me to show off our gains but for you to pick nuggets of trade strategies that you may find compatible with yours. I’m giving you freemium stuff, pal. I hope you’re loving it.

Why do I mention the most active price points every time I post the Price-Volume Distribution chart of a stock?

Those are the price points that got the highest volume and the highest number of trades. Whether you are in a buying or selling mode, knowing where the bulk of trades is happening is helpful in your buying or selling decisions. Our Price-Volume Distribution Chart helps us in many ways. 

Why do I always post the Top 10 Players chart?

It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways. If the top 10 players’ buying average is above the median of the stock’s intraday high and low, that boosts my data-driven confidence to believe that the intraday bullishness of the stock is sustainable.

In our Quick Start Guide (accessible by subscribers only), you’ll find a detailed documentation of how you can use the Price-Volume Distribution and Top 10 Players charts to a profitable trading.

FOOD - Trade Plan for 2 Rounds - Short-term Trading Stock Recommendation by EquiPicks

Day 1 of Round 1: August 29, 2018

Here’s the timestamped screenshot of what I posted on FOOD’s thread in our Private Clients Forum last August 29, 2018.

Here’s a trade setup for FOOD.

I find FOOD tradable because it has managed to stay afloat above the 1.03 support. The price is now slightly above its 10SMA and MACD is still above the signal line. This means one of my buy signals is up.

FOOD is perfectly moving inside the bullish territory both on the short-term and long-term time periods since its longer-term SMAs are below the shorter-term SMAs.

The resistance that we “want” FOOD to break is at 1.35.  That gives us a generous upside of over 30%.

While some of you may want to treat that psychological resistance as your fixed target selling price, I would still suggest that you use your trailing stop loss as your selling price (gain or loss).

Time and again, I will keep on reminding you that we’re making data-driven projections here. I’m not talking about guarantees or certainties.

For the experienced traders who have been trading for years, I know I don’t need to emphasize that. But for the newbies, it’s worth mentioning.

For one, FOOD has a EXTREMELY HIGH RISK level due to its risk percentage of 185.27%.

Although yesterday’s volume is below its 30-day volume average, my trade setup for FOOD is an “anticipation play.” Meaning, it’s a trade setup to enter a new position (in tranches only) before most of the confirmed signals come out.

FOOD registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P284,580.00 as of August 28, 2018. On a 30-day trading period, FOOD is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP889.00.

Let’s not expect the foreign investors to play a significant role in our trading decisions for FOOD  since they’re not the jockeys of FOOD.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Aug-01-2018 to Aug-28-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 89 participants or 3.37% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 89 participants or 13.48% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0460
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0497

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Aug-01-2018 to Aug-28-2018 is from 1.0460 to 1.0497.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Aug-28-2018 at 03:30PM:

10 out of 36 participants or 27.78% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 36 participants or 27.78% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0736
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0754

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Aug-28-2018 is from 1.0736 to 1.0754.

I see a bullish sentiment from the Top 10 Players MTD and Intraday charts. The top 10 players’ buying average is very close to FOOD’s current price of 1.08.

I find 1.05-1.10 as range fit for an entry price. 

Please be quick to adjust your sentiments when things change, ladies and gentlemen. Mind you, my interpretation is based on what I see on the data referenced as of the time of writing this post. It’s not impossible that a huge transaction (buy or sell) can be registered minutes after I’ve published this post.

So if you’re a newbie in trading and you’re not yet on that level wherein you can quickly adjust your trade setup based on the latest happenings on the stock, you’re better off observing our discussions here for now.

Trailing stop loss: don’t forget this. 

Round 1: Follow-up Post by EOD of August 29, 2018

FOOD may play actively again within the 1.05-1.10 range tomorrow as far as what I see on its Price-Volume Distribution chart is concerned.

After all, the average buying price of the top 10 players is at the median of this range.

However, the market doesn’t move according to my words so you should be quick to re-assess the situation if FOOD acts as a contrarian, especially in the first 15 minutes of trading.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Aug-29-2018 at 03:30PM:

10 out of 40 participants or 25.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 40 participants or 27.50% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0721
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0761

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Aug-29-2018 is from 1.0721 to 1.0761.

Round 1: September 5, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid as of the time of posting this update.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-05-2018 at 02:40PM:

4 out of 19 participants or 21.05% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
7 out of 19 participants or 36.84% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0368
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0396

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-05-2018 is from 1.0368 to 1.0396.

The most actively traded price point as of the time indicated on the PVD chart is 1.03.

Round 1: September 6, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid. I posted this on August 29. It opened at 1.03, closed at 1.05, hit an intraday high of 1.11, and hit an intraday low of 1.02 on that day.

I will continue to provide coverage for FOOD as long as it’s above 0.99.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-06-2018 at 03:30PM:

8 out of 21 participants or 38.10% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 21 participants or 23.81% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9992
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9990

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-06-2018 is from 0.9990 to 0.9990.

The most active price point today was 1.00.

Round 1 Update: September 10, 2018

Our trade setup for FOOD remains valid. The price is still above 1.00-1.03.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-10-2018 at 03:30PM:

11 out of 24 participants or 45.83% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 24 participants or 20.83% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0449
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0433

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-10-2018 is from 1.0433 to 1.0433.

The most active range today was between 1.03 and 1.05.

Round 1 Update: September 18, 2018

The most active range today was between 1.17 and 1.27.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-18-2018 at 03:30PM:

13 out of 58 participants or 22.41% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 58 participants or 13.79% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.2296
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.2257

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-18-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.2257 to 1.2296.

End of Round 1: 20-23% Estimated After-fees Profit 

In my post dated September 18, I knew that the bullishness of the previous trading day weakened already. How did I know? See the Price-Volume Distribution chart. Do you see the price points that got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades near the intraday low? That’s it! Do you know see how helpful this chart is? At a glance, you can form a data-driven sentiment. Yes, that quick.

Now, those who apply a 10 percent risk tolerance when trading must have already realized their gains either on September 17 or 18. The after-fees profit is between 20 to 23 percent.

Updates Between Rounds 1 and 2

I did not stop giving daily updates on FOOD even after most of our customers’ who traded FOOD realized their gains. I wanted to see if FOOD would respect a major support and show signs of a potential rebound near that level.

Post-Round 1 Update: September 27, 2018

FOOD is re-testing the support at 1.03 once again. MACD is bearish. The Fast Stochastic is below the Slow Stochastic and that’s a bearish signal, too. The price is below the 10SMA and that’s another bearish signal. We’ll see tomorrow if FOOD will respect the support at 1.03.

There’s no better advice than to tell you to respect your trailing stop loss.

The most active range today was between 1.02 and 1.03.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-27-2018 at 03:30PM:

13 out of 31 participants or 41.94% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 31 participants or 29.03% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0251
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0269

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-27-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.0251 to 1.0269.

Who Said It’s Too Late if You Didn’t Catch the Bottom?

Some of you may want to say, “Jaycee, you should have entered a new position on October 11, 2018.”

Hindsight is 20/20. You are saying that just because you see that FOOD seemed to have drawn a support at 0.86 on the chart. I want to see at least one confirmation before I move. Here’s what I saw on my data on October 12, 2018.

This is an EOD update as of October 12, 2018.

FOOD is now moving near the intersection between its resistance (1.03) and support (0.90).  Last Friday’s volume was not that significant so it doesn’t add up to my confidence to think that FOOD is about to register new and taller candlesticks next week unless I see tall green bars on next week’s daily Top 10 Players charts. I  don’t see much confident buying activities among the top 10 players of FOOD when I look at its EOD and WTD Top 10 Players charts.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 7 out of 26 participants or 26.92% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 26 participants or 15.38% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.8822
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.8847

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.8822 to 0.8847.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-08-2018 to Oct-12-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 8 out of 44 participants or 18.18% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 4 out of 44 participants or 9.09% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9051
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9099

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-08-2018 to Oct-12-2018 is from 0.9051 to 0.9099.

The most active range was between 0.88 and 0.90.

Day 1 of Round 2: October 16, 2018 Update

I got one signal from Stochastic that warranted the idea of entering a new position on FOOD for the second time. This is an EOD update as of October 15, 2018.

This is an EOD update as of October 15, 2018.

The Slow Stochastic is already moving below Fast Stochastic. FOOD needs more volume to sustain the upward momentum. Nonetheless, FOOD is closer to its resistance at 1.03 than to its support at 0.80.

The most active range was between 0.91 and 0.93.

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-15-2018 at 03:30PM:

  • 7 out of 22 participants or 31.82% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
  • 6 out of 22 participants or 27.27% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
  • Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9216
  • Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9166

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-15-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9166 to 0.9216.

Round 2: October 23, 2018 Update

This is an EOD update as of October 23, 2018.

FOOD is poised to break out above the resistance at 1.00. Support is at 0.86.

I like how MACD and Stochastic show bullish divergences with their partner indicators (signal line for MACD, Fast Stochastic for Slow Stochastic).

We want to see the price above 1.10 so that the 10 SMA will cross above the 20 SMA. If and when that happens, the uptrend sentiment will become stronger than where it is at the moment.

Top 10 Players – October 23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-23-2018 at 03:30PM:

6 out of 23 participants or 26.09% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 23 participants or 34.78% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9942
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9946

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-23-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9942 to 0.9946.

Round 2 Update: October 26, 2018

If you have a risk tolerance of at least 15%, you’ll find this trade setup valid while the price is above 0.92.  If your risk tolerance is up to 25%, this trade setup will be valid while the price is above 0.86. All of these are based on the closing price of 1.05 last August 29, 2018.

Right now, FOOD is two ticks above 0.92. We hope to see a higher volume to sustain FOOD’s ascent.

Most active price point(s)/range(s): 0.91-0.94

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-26-2018 at 11:22AM:

7 out of 18 participants or 38.89% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
4 out of 18 participants or 22.22% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9168
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9259

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-26-2018 at 11:22AM is from 0.9168 to 0.9259.

Round 2 Update: November 3, 2018

This is an EOD update as of October 31, 2018.

FOOD might continue to trade the range (0.86-1.00) this coming week unless the volume will increase by a significant level.

While the Fast Stochastic already crossed above the Slow Stochastic and the MACD already moved above the signal line, the price is still below the 10 SMA.

This is the situation wherein we need more data-driven bases where we can draw our go or no-go decision to top-up.

I’d like to emphasize what I like about the top 10 players’ sentiment. The top 10 players’ psychological average price on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts plays between 0.94 and 0.95. That’s on-point to the closing price of FOOD last Friday. The top 10 players last October are still holding on to their position. So consider that in your trade decisions.

Let’s check our other data points below.

Price-Volume Distribution

Most active price point(s)/range(s): 0.95

Foreign Fund Flow

The outflow of foreign funds has weakened this week. If this is an early sign of an upcoming bullish reversal, then, topping up or entering a new position deems valid. However, that is an IF statement – a conditional clause.

FOOD registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P5,640.00 as of October 31, 2018.

On a 30-day trading period, FOOD is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP844,780.00.

Risk Level

FOOD has a MODERATE RISK level due to its risk percentage of 51.46%.

Volume

As of October 31, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of FOOD is 254.37% of the previous trading day. This stock’s latest volume is still below its 30-day volume average.

Remember the correlation between price and volume.

bullish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bullish
bullish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = neutral
bearish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bearish
bearish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = bearish

Top 10 Players EOD – October 31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 15 participants or 20.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 15 participants or 40.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9502
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9503

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.9502 to 0.9503.

Top 10 Players WTD – October 29-31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

3 out of 16 participants or 18.75% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 16 participants or 31.25% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9404
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9406

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 0.9404 to 0.9406.

Top 10 Players MTD – October 1-31, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:

9 out of 65 participants or 13.85% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 65 participants or 9.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9515
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9590

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 0.9515 to 0.9590.

Round 2 Update: Novemer 23, 2018

This is an EOD update as of November 23, 2018.

Price-Volume Distribution – November 23, 2018

VWAP: 1.0516
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.04, 1.08
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 1.04, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08

Top 10 Players EOD – November 23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
8 out of 19 participants or 42.11% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
3 out of 19 participants or 15.79% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0494
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0560
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.0494 to 1.0560.

Top 10 Players WTD – November 19-23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-19-2018 to Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 48 participants or 8.33% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
14 out of 48 participants or 29.17% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0660
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0651
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-19-2018 to Nov-23-2018 is from 1.0651 to 1.0660.

Top 10 Players MTD – November 5-23, 2018

Trading participants of FOOD with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-23-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 73 participants or 5.48% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
15 out of 73 participants or 20.55% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.0440
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.0484
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-23-2018 is from 1.0440 to 1.0484.

End of Round 2: 15-18% Estimated After-fees Profit 

Those who traded FOOD on October 16, 2018 between 0.90 and 0.98 per share and sold their positions when their trailing stop loss was hit between November 26 and 27 profited between 15 and 18 percent (after taxes and fees).

Key Takeaways

  • Learn how to plot support and resistance levels. You’ve won half of the battle when you know how to do this.
  • Don’t fret when you did not catch the literal bottom of a stock. Instead of rushing in, when for confirmed signals.
  • Read the updates that I post in our Private Clients Forum for each of the stocks that I recommend for short-term trading and long-term investing.
  • Refer to my interpretation of the Price-Volume Distribution of a stock to know the best price points where you should buy or sell.
  • Refer to my interpretation of the Top 10 Players chart of a stock if you want to get a confirmation of the sustainability of the intraday sentiment.
  • If you are an EquiPicks subscriber, take advantage of your membership or subscription by posting a stock analysis request in the Stock Analysis Requests section of our Private Clients Forum.

What Did You Learn?

Did you learn a thing or two from what I’ve shared with you? I would appreciate it if you would share this article on social media or forward it to a friend. Please comment below with what you’ve learned. Feel free to ask questions, too. Thank you for reading.

As of Tuesday trading, US stock exchanges closed in the red zone except for NASDAQ, which is up by 11.31 points as of the time of writing this. Meanwhile, European stocks recovered from Monday’s rally. Asian exchanges, on the other hand, had a mixed sentiment with Nikkei 225 and Topix Index closing with a red day change, while Hang Seng, CSI 300, and S&P/ASX 200 made it just a few points above the red territory.

While David Woo of the Bank of America said that he wouldn’t touch emerging markets with a 10-foot pole and despite the exposition of investment risks in the Philippine stock market by Bloomberg (see image below), I see compelling reasons to be a contrarian of his sentiment on EMs.

We got some fundamentally sound companies listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange that are relatively undervalued compared to their peers in their respective sector.

My technical analysis also approves the idea of consistently topping up on these select stocks on a regular basis (make it monthly if possible). This is my long-term POV.

There are 16 stocks that passed my filter for long-term investing. Are you an EquiPicks subscriber? I ask you to read Newsletters Vol 1 Nos 25 to 30. It’s an update on what we see on these 16 stocks in as far as their financial reports are concerned.

If you would want to play with the intraday volatility of speculative stocks, take a look at our Short-term Trading watchlist.

EquiPicks subscribers can find these two watchlists as soon as you log in to your account.

Premium Leisure Corp. (PLC) advanced today, 10 December 2018, by 9.33% which led to a closing price of 0.82-apiece. Its ascent was purely driven by local retail traders and not by foreign investors. Foreign fundies only registered a Net Foreign Buying of P54,500.00.

So what triggered the local retail traders to trade PLC today by up to P35 million?

Just like many traders, I’m sure that’s one of the questions you’d like to ask.

If you’ll ask me, I don’t really care what triggered a stock to go up or down as far as my being a pure technician (bias on technical analysis) is concerned when I do short-term trading (because I do fundamental analysis when I do long-term investing).

When I am in a pure technician mode, the end-of-day data already paints the whole picture of what the market thought about the stock today and what they could probably be planning for the next trading day.

Do I bother checking PSE Edge to check disclosures when I do short-term trading?

I do not. I only look on three things.

  • Candlestick Chart – I check the support and resistance levels. Sometimes, I refer to convergence or divergence of the moving averages. But knowing the support and resistance levels of a stock is sometimes more than enough for me to make a killing trading.
  • Price-Volume Distribution Chart
    • It helps us identify reversals, divergences, or false breakouts.
    • It shows at a glance the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades.
    • It helps us see if the majority of the volume is registered near the intraday high, intraday low, or median. The price bar at the top
    • of the chart represents the intraday high. The price bar at the bottom represents the intraday low.
    • It gives us a clue if cross trades happened at a certain price.
    • This chart helps us decide where we should place our buying or selling price because we can see the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades at a glance.
    • It helps us know the stock’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).
  • Top 10 Players Chart
    • It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways.
    • It ranks all of the brokers who have traded the stock as of the time of checking/
    • It tells us the buying and selling average of each of the top 10 players of the stock on a real-time basis.
    • It tells us the psychological average price of the top 10 players of the stock.
    • It tells us the buying average and selling average of each of the top 10 players.
    • It tells us the cumulative buying average and cumulative selling average of the top 10 players.

PLC managed to maintain its position above the 0.74 support with a bullish volume. It temporary broke above the resistance at 0.84 as it hit the 0.85 intraday high at 10:33 am but it wasn’t sustained.

This 0.84 was once a strong support. Over the past 18 years, I’ve noticed that profit-taking is more likely to occur when the price is inching closer to a resistance level which was once a very strong support.

“So, Jaycee, do you mean you sell on that kind of a resistance level?”

I do not. I use a trailing stop loss. I don’t want stress when I do short-term trading and long-term investing. If it’s a gain, it’s a gain. I’m not the kind of a trader who wants to rake in every profit to the very last centavo. A trailing stop loss preserves my capital, protects my gain (if any), and prevents unbearable losses.

Recommended Article: Bakit Kailangang Gumamit ng Trailing Stop-Loss at Paano ang Computation Nito?

If PLC crosses above 0.85 with a strong volume tomorrow, chances are it will re-test the resistance at 0.94. 

If you’re like me who relies on a trailing stop loss, just do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop loss and you should be fine. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t monitor the by-the-second movement of PLC, however. Did you already forget that none of the brokers in the Philippines have a stop loss feature in place?

Price-Volume Distribution

VWAP: 0.8197
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 0.83, 0.82, 0.84, 0.79, 0.8
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 0.82, 0.83, 0.84, 0.79, 0.85

PLC closed today at 0.82. Its Volume Weighted Average Price is very close to 0.82. This confirms that today’s market sentiment for PLC was bullish. That supports my bullish sentiment that PLC might continue to soar tomorrow. But, of course, I won’t rely to my data-driven bullish sentiment as the absolute truth. I will still respect my trailing stop loss even if the market proves my bullish sentiment wrong tomorrow. I hope you do the same. Prayer and hope are good in life. But don’t rely only on those two in stock trading or investing.

Top 10 Players EOD

Trading participants of PLC with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-10-2018 at 03:30PM:
13 out of 53 participants or 24.53% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
15 out of 53 participants or 28.30% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.8166
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.8215
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-10-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.8166 to 0.8215.

Know that Abacus is PLC’s top player this month as of 10 December 2018. It remains the top seller of PLC for December MTD. Are you nervous that most brokers will follow through on Abacus’ bearish moves tomorrow or in the coming days? You shouldn’t if you’re using a trailing stop loss and if you have the time to monitor the market.

Nonetheless, the mean of today’s intraday high and low is 0.795. The top 10 players’ buying average is higher than 0.795. I will still maintain my forecast that PLC might continue to touch 0.85 or higher tomorrow.  After all, today’s volume is higher than the volume’s 30-day moving average. When the price closed in green and its latest volume is above the 30-day volume average, I give an extra point to the bulls.

Recommendation

Planning to enter a new position on PLC? Don’t hurry. The chances of a rally at 0.84 are high. Why don’t you monitor first and wait for clarity on the PLC’s go or no-go decision to trade above 0.85 with conviction?

Do you already have PLC and you’d like to ask me if you should hold your position or buy some more? Ask yourself, “Do Jaycee’s overall sentiment resonate with mine?” Now, before you ask that question to yourself, please, pretty please, make sure you did a data-driven analysis to arrive on your personal sentiment on PLC. If my bullish sentiment resonates with yours, then, you have the option to add more shares. If you will, do it in tranches. Never go all-in any time and all the time. You got it?

Bottom line is, follow your trailing stop loss. You don’t need to add more stress in your life.

If you like how I think, if you like how I mix and match data, if you like how I connect seemingly irrelevant data but still be able to make a complete sense out of it, and if you like me to guide you in your short-term trading and long-term investing activities, subscribe to EquiPicks today.

Do You Have Questions?

Comment below. I’ll reply if you ask nicely.

When to sell if your winning stock?

Sell when it hits the major resistance.

Sell when it hits your trailing stop loss.

There are many ways depending on your strategy.

I added Cirtek Holdings Philippines Corporation (TECH) in our Short-term Trading watchlist (stock recommendations for short-term trading) last August 30, 2018.

That’s right! At Equilyst Analytics, we have stock recommendations for short-term trading and long-term investing. So whether you want to focus on short-term trading or long-term investing or you want to do both, we can cater to you.

We traded TECH twice.

Round 1: August 30, 2018 – September 19, 2018
Gains: up to 20%

Round 2: September 27, 2018 – October 31, 2018
Gains: up to 15%

I recommended using a trailing stop loss. It’s a stress-free strategy for selling either at a loss or gain.

I’ll dissect our trade setup for you (non-subscribers). If you’ve learned a thing or two, please comment below this article and let me know.

Round 1 Trade Dissection

Here’s what I posted on August 30, 2018.

 

—-

It looks like TECH has respected the support at 29.00. The disclosure about the buyback program may have triggered traders to become bullish this morning.

The resistance is at 34.80. There’s an upside of more or less 10% with respect to the current price of TECH as of the time of writing this post and its resistance.

Understand that this is a quite risky trade setup because I’m looking at an “anticipation play” only. My buy signals aren’t confirmed yet.

Like what signal? For example, TECH’s price is not yet above the 10SMA and MACD is not yet above the signal line.

As usual, calculate your trailing stop loss to protect your capital, preserve your gains (if any), and prevent unbearable losses.

Trading participants of TECH with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Aug-30-2018 at 11:07AM:

9 out of 40 participants or 22.50% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 40 participants or 30.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 31.7458
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 32.0032

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Aug-30-2018 is from 31.7458 to 32.0032.

Refer to the chart below for the possible candidates for an entry price. Where are they? They’re the longest bars with the highest number of trades. Please look at the chart. They’re distinguishable.

If and when the price starts going down to 29.00 again or wherever your trailing stop loss is, consider cutting your losses.


September 3, 2018

On 3 September 2018, I reiterated to our clients that our trade setup for TECH remained valid. I also gave the price points that got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades.

September 5, 2018

I had the same bullish sentiment on September 5, 2018.

September 6, 2018

By the end of trading on September 6, I told our clients that TECH was already moving above the 10SMA and MACD was poised to make a bullish crossover above the signal line. I also reiterated that I found TECH more bullish on that day than the previous trading days.

September 10, 2018

On September 10, I informed our clients that TECH was finally moving above the 10-day moving average and MACD was above the signal line. If you are my regular visitor and reader of my articles, you know my 10SMA-MACD combo. You can use the search box of this website to read my write-ups regarding this combination.

Know that I do not just post updates every other day. I post updates every single day. I am only publishing select posts to dissect our trade setup so you can learn a thing or two on how we gained 15 to 20 percent trading TECH.

September 20, 2018

On September 20, some of our clients even got the chance to rake in up to 27 percent gains trading TECH. That is if they sold at P40.00-apiece.

I also pointed out that EVERGREEN was the “jockey” of TECH and that they should also monitor this broker’s moves in the succeeding days.

September 21, 2018

On September 21, I advised all clients to stick with their individual trailing stop loss. Those who were not able to join the ride on the first round were advised to buy the dips when the opportunity arises.

Summary of Round 1

Those who traded TECH on August 30 and applied 10 percent risk earned 15 to 20 percent in this round.

Now, let’s proceed with the trade dissection of the second round of trading TECH.

Round 2 Trade Dissection

On September 27, I advised all subscribers that TECH closed with a green candlestick but volume was relatively low compared to the previous days’ volume. The price was still below the 10SMA but MACD remained above the signal line. On the other hand, Stochastic was heading toward the southeast direction (bearish signal).

You can see how indicators can have opposite views at times. This is where experience can be more useful.

So, I advised our clients to buy in tranches if they would want to piggy-back EVERGREEN.

Remember, in round 1, we monitored EVERGREEN’s moves.

September 27, 2018

October 4, 2018

I provided daily updates. For brevity’s sake, I’ve skipped the screenshots of the previous days. Now, on October 4, we spotted EVERGREEN buying aggressively at 35.70.

October 13, 2018

The aggressive stance of EVERGREEN was noticed on October 13. Nonetheless, the ascent of TECH made us do an upward adjustment on our trailing stop loss.

October 16, 2018

The chance to take home a bigger gain was intensified on October 16, 2018.

October 19, 2018

A quiet day was noticed on October 19, 2018. Nonetheless, it wasn’t a call out to sell.

October 24, 2018

I gave our clients some technical updates. The Top 10 Players chart wasn’t captured on the screenshot below but I gave them updates about the top 10 players’ buying and selling averages, too.

October 26, 2018

Our clients were informed that the trade setup for TECH was still valid. However, a bigger volume was needed to sustain its ascent. The actively traded price points were given as usual.

November 3, 2018

I posted on November 3 my EOD update for October 31, 2018. The 40-44 forecast did not see the light of day because traders decided to rake in profits near 39. That was where the resistance was. Thankfully, we employ a trailing stop loss. Whether you are right or wrong with your data-driven forecast, your capital is protected, your gains are preserved, and unbearable losses are prevented when you are using a trailing stop loss.

I continuously provided daily updates for TECH in its thread in the Private Clients Forum for the benefit of those who applied more than 10 percent risk in their trade setup.

Summary of Round 2

Those who played TECH again on September 27 and applied 10 percent risk earned up to 15 percent in this round.

All in all, the combined earnings on TECH is estimated between 30 to 35 percent.

Key Realizations

  • It is an advantage to know the price points that got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades. Our Price-Volume Distribution chart can give you that information.
  • It is an advantage to know the top 10 players’ buying and selling averages. Our Top 10 Players chart can handle that.
  • It is an advantage if you have mastered one or two combinations of indicators. One indicator will confirm the sentiment derived from the other indicator.

Alright! Did you learn something from this documentation of how we traded TECH?

It would be nice if you can comment below the best part of this documentation that you liked. Feel free to comment your questions, too. Thanks for reading!

Yesterday, I showed you how we earned approximately 25 percent on ISM.

Today, I’ll show you how we lose roughly 20 percent on the first round and how we earned nearly 50 percent on the second round trading Now Corporation (NOW).

Just when you thought that I would only want to raise the flag of my wins, here I am showing you how my data-driven forecast proved me wrong on the first round trading NOW. I’ll show you how it all started with some time-stamped screenshots from our Private Clients Forum where I guide our subscribers.

First, here’s the time-stamped screenshot.

Next, here’s the exact thing that I posted for our clients last September 24, 2018.

—-

NOW’s closing price is above the 10SMA and MACD is above the signal line already.

The Fast Stochastic already crossed above the Slow Stochastic. That’s a bullish signal for me.

With these buy signals appearing while RSI and Stochastic are in the neutral level, that supports the idea that NOW still has more rooms for a bullish price action.

Support is at 6.77 while resistance is at 8.05 as a precursor to 10.00

If you will enter a new position at 7.70 and sell at 8.05, that will give you an upside of 5 percent only.

If you will enter at 7.70 and sell at 10 (if NOW moves up to that level), that’s an upside of nearly 30 percent.

But I don’t advise setting a fixed price as your selling point. Use a TRAILING STOP LOSS instead.

For the new members here, please read Newsletter Vol 1. No. 13. I’ve explained this trailing stop loss in Filipino in that newsletter.

NOW’s daily volume is slowly moving toward its 30-day volume average. If the price continues to register a green candlestick and volume touches or crosses the 30-day volume average’s line, that will reinforce the bullish momentum of NOW.

Be extra careful, however. NOW has a HIGH RISK level due to its risk percentage of 73.53%.

NOW registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P1,094,062.00 as of September 21, 2018. On a 30-day trading period, NOW is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP2,307,340.00.

The month-to-date sentiment of the top 10 players of NOW remains bullish as their buying average is still close to NOW’s prevailing price at 7.70.

Trading participants of NOW with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Sep-03-2018 to Sep-21-2018 at 03:30PM:

12 out of 89 participants or 13.48% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 89 participants or 5.62% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 7.6199
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 7.6678

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Sep-03-2018 to Sep-21-2018 is from 7.6199 to 7.6678.

Trading participants of NOW with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Sep-17-2018 to Sep-21-2018 at 03:30PM:

19 out of 63 participants or 30.16% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 63 participants or 12.70% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 7.2641
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 7.3407

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Sep-17-2018 to Sep-21-2018 is from 7.2641 to 7.3407.

Trading participants of NOW with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Sep-24-2018 at 01:52PM:

5 out of 24 participants or 20.83% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 24 participants or 33.33% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 7.6268
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 7.6163

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Sep-24-2018 at 01:52PM is from 7.6163 to 7.6268.

The most active range as of the time indicated on the Price-Volume Distribution chart below is between 7.60 and 7.70.

The Disaster Happened

The disaster happened last October 10, 2018. NOW closed at 7.49 the previous day. Then, it dropped by more than 31 percent on October 10th.

Our entry price was somewhere around 7.60. Those who followed a 10 percent risk tolerance didn’t get the chance to sell at their ideal trailing stop loss around 6.84 because NOW opened at 5.00. Quite luckily, it hit an intraday high of 6.38 on October 10th. That made us quickly reduce our paper loss from a little over 30 percent to 20 percent.

Things happened so rapidly. We lost roughly 20 percent of our trading capital for NOW on October 10th.

This is a perfect example of how important it is for you to have the time to monitor the market if you want to venture into short-term trading.

Add to the pain the fact that there’s no stop loss feature in the Philippines yet.

Do you now understand why short-term trading is so demanding of our monitoring time?

Also, remember that I was so data-driven with my forecast on September 24th. Here’s the truth: no matter how data-driven you are, the market will still decide. But that’s not an excuse to base everything on instinct and to never have a data-driven decision anymore.

Data analysis can reduce but not eradicate risk. Acknowledge the Pacific Ocean-sized difference between those two verbs.

How We Recovered

I knew that traders were all on the lookout for rumors about the third telco company during that time. So I continued to monitor NOW.

In fact, I continuously posted daily updates of NOW on its thread in our Private Clients Forum.

NOW registered a green volume bar on November 8, 2018. While MACD was still below the signal line and the price was still below the 10-day moving average back then, pre-empting the confirmed buy signal works sometimes, but it’s too risky.

If you’re not a high-risk trader, I do not advise pre-empting confirmed buy signals.

So I posted an update on November 12, 2018. That was the day when NOW began to trade sideways near the then resistance at 3.12. Dilly-dallying near 3.12 lasted for 10 to 11 trading days.

Every day, I gave our clients the actively traded price points and the top 10 players’ buying and selling averages so they would have a basis where to park their buying price.

See the screenshots below. I can’t include all screenshots. There’s a lot.

When NOW went above 4.00, the volume started to weaken bit by bit. I also noticed that the price slid little by little.

For EquiPicks subscribers, being on top of each trader’s trailing stop loss is the first rule of active trading. No one can say, “Oh, I have no idea about this trailing stop loss,” because I issued Newsletter Vol 1 No 13. I wrote that newsletter in Filipino (Tagalog). I described what a trailing stop loss is and how it is computed.

Those who always apply a 10 percent risk tolerance for short-term trading must have sold their position between 4.00 and 4.05.

Those who re-entered NOW between 1.85 and 2.00 and sold between 4.00 and 4.05 earned roughly 50 percent.

All in all, those who played my trade setup for NOW on both rounds did not only recuperate from their losses on the first round but also registered a net profit of approximately 30 percent (round 1 losses – round 2 gains).

What’s the Lesson Here?

The profitability in trading is not about having zero losses. You can’t avoid losses. I can’t avoid them. In fact, avoiding losses is not my goal but minimizing them. At the end of the day, the goal is to have more wins and a few losses.

You minimize losses by being data-driven in all that you do. It also makes a lot of difference when you have a mentor who guides you.

Some of our clients can analyze on their own yet they still decided to subscribe to EquiPicks.

What do you think is the reason?

Aside from they want to have an access to my detailed and in-depth analysis, they want to exchange ideas and insights with me.

When two or more bright minds synergize, great things can happen.

I know my analytical style does not look familiar to many. Firstly, most of my tools are not conventional or classical tools that existed before I was born. I developed my own tools. Secondly, I have my own way of looking at data. I have my own framework.

I want you to know that all of these charts that I use, the ways on how to use them, how to interpret them, and how to use that interpretation to make a trade or investment decision are documented in our Quick Start Guide.

If you will only make time to read the Quick Start Guide without rushing, if you will only read my posts in the Private Clients Forum, and if you will only actively participate on discussions in the forum, you’ll be able to see things through my eyes in a month or two.

There’s a Private Clients Forum, anyway. If my simplified version is not simple enough for you, you may post your question in the Private Clients Forum.

Click here to subscribe to EquiPicks.

Do you have questions about this trade dissection of NOW? Please comment below.

There are five charts that I use whenever I trade and assist our subscribers of EquiPicks. One of those charts if the Top 10 Players chart.

Why did I create this chart?

For the subscribers of EquiPicks, there’s a documentation for each of the charts that we use in our Quick Start Guide. It’s a long but detailed documentation. Please read it so you can take advantage of the power of this chart. You can only see this chart at Equilyst Analytics.

For the non-subscribers, I’ll give you a hint what this chart can do.

  • It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways.
  • It ranks all of the brokers who have traded the stock as of the time of checking/
  • It tells us the buying and selling average of each of the top 10 players of the stock on a real-time basis.
  • It tells us the psychological average price of the top 10 players of the stock.
  • It tells us the buying average and selling average of each of the top 10 players.
  • It tells us the cumulative buying average and cumulative selling average of the top 10 players.

This morning, I’d like to share with you the Top 10 Players charts of the following stocks:

  • PXP Energy Corporation (PXP)
  • STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc. (STI)
  • Premium Leisure Corp. (PLC)
  • AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)
  • Belle Corporation (BEL)

These are not stock recommendations. I only picked the top 5 gainers yesterday based on total turnover value for demonstration purposes.

I don’t do this often for free but I feel good this morning to share with you the Top 10 Players charts of these five stocks so you’ll know the following:

  • the number of participants who registered a 100% BUYING activity on each stock yesterday, December 5, 2018
  • the number of participants who registered a 100% SELLING activity on each stock yesterday, December 5, 2018
  • the top 10 players’ buying average
  • the top 10 players’ selling average

The buying and selling averages of the top 10 brokers are a sneak preview of the range of their collective average price.

If you know the psychological average price of the top 10 brokers who have traded a stock, you can calculate in your mind how much more can they probably afford to hold, relative to their collective risk tolerance, should the stock’s price go south.

I want you to bear my observations in mind.

  • When the top 10 players’ buying average is ABOVE the median of the intraday high and low and the top 10 players’ selling average, there is a higher percentage of chance for the uptrend to continue.
  • When the top 10 players’ buying average is ABOVE the median of the intraday high and low but BELOW the top 10 players’ selling average, the price might move sideways.
  • When the top 10 players’ buying average is BELOW the median of the intraday high and low and the top 10 players’ selling average, there is a higher percentage of chance for the downtrend to continue.
  • When the top 10 players’ buying average is BELOW the median of the intraday high and low and but ABOVE the top 10 players’ selling average, the price might move sideways.

Since this is just a free article, I am not going to serve everything to you on a silver platter. I will give you an assignment.

You compute for these stocks’ median price as of yesterday’s trading. You can do that. Promise, it’s Elementary Arithmetic.

I’ve done 99% of the work for you. Your assignment is just 1%. Fair enough? 🙂

Without further ado, here are the charts and statistics.

PXP Energy Corporation (PXP)

Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
7 out of 71 participants or 9.86% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
20 out of 71 participants or 28.17% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 15.7368
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 15.7269
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 15.7269 to 15.7368.

STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc. (STI)

Trading participants of STI with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
6 out of 39 participants or 15.38% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
14 out of 39 participants or 35.90% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.6474
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.6489
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.6474 to 0.6489.

Premium Leisure Corp. (PLC)

Trading participants of PLC with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
14 out of 47 participants or 29.79% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
17 out of 47 participants or 36.17% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.7293
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.7330
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.7293 to 0.7330.

AbaCore Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA)

Trading participants of ABA with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
9 out of 37 participants or 24.32% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 37 participants or 21.62% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.6170
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.6190
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 0.6170 to 0.6190.

Belle Corporation (BEL)

Trading participants of BEL with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
11 out of 29 participants or 37.93% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 29 participants or 37.93% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 2.3571
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 2.3396
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 2.3396 to 2.3571.

You have seen the power and value of just one chart.

This is just one of the five charts that I use when I assist our customers at Equilyst Analytics.

The thing is, you won’t find this in any broker whether inside or outside the Philippines.

The way we assist our customers reflects on our testimonials.

Subscribe to EquiPicks today. Click here to learn more about this service.

We started trading ISM Communications Corporation (ISM) last November 9, 2018. Since its intraday low of 5.81 on November 9, the highest intraday high it registered on the days that came after November 9 was 8.62.

I tell my clients that my usual risk tolerance percentage when I do short-term trading is 10 percent. It can go as high as 20 percent but my mean is at 10 percent.

If those who played the trade setup I posted for ISM last November 9, 2018 also had a 10 percent risk tolerance like me, their trailing stop loss was hit at 7.76. ISM traded below 7.76 last November 16. This means ISM is no longer part of our Short-term Trading Watchlist. On the screenshots below, you’ll see that I continued to provide daily updates even though the trailing stop loss for those who have a 10 percent risk tolerance was already hit. I did that for the benefit of those who have a risk tolerance that is higher than 10 percent.

Those who strictly followed their trailing stop loss and traded ISM when I posted this trade setup in our Short-term Trading Watchlist surely bagged a profit that is somewhere between 22 to 25 percent.

This is the reason why I am already revealing the trade setup that made me decide to add ISM in our Short-term Trading Watchlist for the EquiPicks subscribers.

Here’s what I posted in our Private Clients Forum for our clients last November 9, 2018. I’ll show you a screenshot with a timestamp.

Here’s what I initially posted last November 9, 2018.

————–

I’ve noticed that many of you are interested to know more about the case of ISM. So, I’m opening this thread for ISM. I’ll provide a daily coverage on this stock so you’ll be updated without the need to request for an EOD update.

Yesterday’s ascent was supported with a bullish volume but the bulls retreated a bit from the intraday high. That revealed a bit of hesitation from yesterday’s bullish traders. That means everyone’s eavesdropping with each other’s next move.

I’ve used Fibonacci to forecast the next psychological resistance of ISM.

ISM’s resistance is at 8.06, which is in confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. It’s a precursor to 9.11, the resistance after 8.06.

The major support is at 3.97, which is in confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, the price must break the support range between 4.45 and 4.96 to prove that the bearish sentiment is strong enough to break the support at 3.97.

I do not suggest reliance on the classical interpretation of Stochastic and RSI at this time.

Trade based on what you see on the Price-Volume Distribution and Top 10 Players chart of ISM.

Volume

As of November 8, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of ISM is 102.82% of the previous trading day. This stock’s latest volume is already above its 30-day volume average.

Risk Level

ISM skyrocketed. When a stock registers a volatility that’s higher than its normal volatility for the past 2 to 4 weeks, expect that the risk level will fly all the way to the HIGH or EXTREMELY HIGH level.

ISM has an EXTREMELY HIGH RISK level due to its risk percentage of 225.43%.

Foreign Fund Flow

ISM registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P4,773,540.00 as of November 08, 2018.

On a 30-day trading period, ISM is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP19,117,919.00.

Price-Volume Distribution

Most active price point(s)/range(s): Focus on the price points with the biggest volume and the highest number of trades from 6.50 and below.

If and when the bullish sentiment becomes dominant in the first 15 to 30 minutes of trading today, refer to the price points with the biggest volume and the highest number of trades from 6.50 and above.

Top 10 Players EOD – November 8, 2018

Trading participants of ISM with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Nov-08-2018 at 03:30PM:

9 out of 105 participants or 8.57% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 105 participants or 5.71% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 6.8991
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 6.9437

The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Nov-08-2018 at 03:30PM is from 6.8991 to 6.9437.

Two things are possible.

1. Yesterday’s traders realized their gains already; OR

2. Many of them have been left on the top hoping that ISM will continue to soar today.

So consider these two possibilities if you’re planning to enter a new position or to top up on your current position on ISM today.

Top 10 Players WTD – November 5-8, 2018

Trading participants of ISM with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-08-2018 at 03:30PM:

5 out of 112 participants or 4.46% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 112 participants or 5.36% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 5.7252
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 5.7132

The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-08-2018 is from 5.7132 to 5.7252.

Those who traded ISM at the beginning of this month are still cool. They have a relaxing psychological average price. So even if the bulls retreated a little bit yesterday relative to yesterday’s intraday high, they’re still good.

————–

Then, I posted daily updates on the prices that our clients needed to watch out for whether they were on a buying or selling side of the game. I also included charts instead of just numbers so that our clients can quickly visualize the numbers through a graphical representation.

Here are some screenshots. I just can’t include everything because there’s a lot. You can see how I answered the questions of some of our clients.

I know some of you are subscribers of other providers that rely on newsletters only. We’re more than just a newsletter-based service.

Some of you are subscribed to services that only focus on long-term investing. We offer more than that at a lower price. We have the Short-term Trading and the Long-term Investing watchlists for our customers. Plus, we also provide a Private Clients Forum where they can ask follow-up questions.

I heard from many of our customers, who were former subscribers of a service that focuses only on long-term investing and sends only two stock market updates via newsletter twice a month, that they had no way of asking questions to their former stock market mentor. It’s a totally different experience at Equilyst Analytics. Feel free to read our testimonials and you can see what I’m talking about.

My Latest Analysis

Since we’re done making money off ISM, I have a giveaway for you – my latest analysis of this stock.

ISM will continue to make attempts to re-test the support at 5.25 with this relatively low volume that it has been showing for the past few days.

If the volume spikes and the price holds above 6.30 per share, then, that’ll make the price move above the 10-day moving average. But I don’t think that’s enough to make MACD cross above the signal line. One of my buy signals is when the price moves above the 10-day moving average and when the MACD crosses above the signal line.

Price-Volume Distribution

VWAP: 6.1327
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 6, 6.1, 5.98, 6.2, 6.09
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 6, 5.98, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3

Why do I love using my Price-Volume Distribution chart?

  • It helps us identify reversals, divergences, or false breakouts.
  • It shows at a glance the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades.
  • It helps us see if the majority of the volume is registered near the intraday high, intraday low, or median. The price bar at the top of the chart represents the intraday high. The price bar at the bottom represents the intraday low.
  • It gives us a clue if cross trades happened at a certain price.
  • This chart helps us decide where we should place our buying or selling price because we can see the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades at a glance.
  • It helps us know the stock’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).

By the way, the significance of this chart and the ways on how to interpret it are well-documented in our Quick Start Guide.

Top 10 Players – EOD

Trading participants of ISM with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
16 out of 54 participants or 29.63% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
4 out of 54 participants or 7.41% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 6.1575
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 6.1336
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM is from 6.1336 to 6.1575.

Top 10 Players – WTD

Trading participants of ISM with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Dec-03-2018 to Dec-05-2018 at 03:30PM:
13 out of 78 participants or 16.67% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 78 participants or 10.26% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 6.1763
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 6.1747
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Dec-03-2018 to Dec-05-2018 is from 6.1747 to 6.1763.

Why do I always use the Top 10 Players chart together with the Price-Volume Distribution chart?

  • It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways.
  • It ranks all of the brokers who have traded the stock as of the time of checking/
  • It tells us the buying and selling average of each of the top 10 players of the stock on a real-time basis.
  • It tells us the psychological average price of the top 10 players of the stock.
  • It tells us the buying average and selling average of each of the top 10 players.
  • It tells us the cumulative buying average and cumulative selling average of the top 10 players.

Just like the Price-Volume Distribution chart, this Top 10 Players chart’s use is explained thoroughly in our Quick Start Guide.

If any of our customers would want to ask a question regarding anything they’ve read from the Quick Start Guide, they can post their questions in our Private Clients Forum. The instructions on how to use the Private Clients Forum are on the Quick Start Guide, too!

Final Words

Keep in mind those nuggets of trade strategies I’ve mentioned above. Use a trailing stop loss when you trade. It does 3 Ps. It PRESERVES your capital, PROTECTS your gains, and PREVENTS unbearable losses. Modesty aside, I know there’s a lot of nuggets of gold you can pick from this dissection of our trade for ISM.

Subscribe to EquiPicks. I will help you trade and invest with discipline and with a data-driven basis.

Please comment below if you have questions. I would appreciate if you can comment about below anything you’ve learned from this post. Thank you.

 

DJIA is down by 3.10%, S&P500 by 3.24%, NASDAQ by 3.80%, and NYSE by 2.83% as of market closing on December 4, 2018.

What drove this rally?

– unsettled trade-war between the US and China
– Thirty-year bonds lead rally in Treasuries after inversion
– news that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s push to avoid a so-called “hard Brexit” may be at risk

Will the Philippine Stock Exchange Index follow through today?

Historical data shows that PSEi almost always follows through with the previous-day performance of the US Exchanges. It’s not impossible for PSEi to revisit the support at 7500 today.

But whether or not PSEi follows through with the decline or continues to move above the 200-day moving average, there’s one thing that I highly recommend EquiPicks subscribers should do.

Are you a long-term investor?

Continue buying any of the 16 stocks in our Long-term investing watchlist. I maintain the BUY rating. After all, our buy case is intact for each of them. So why change our course if our buy case is intact? Makes sense?

A lot of newbie and novice investors will react fearfully today. That’s for sure. They will even use adjectives or expressions on their Facebook posts that will suggest fear. If you’re gullible, if you don’t have a data-driven strategy, or if you’re not being guided by a mentor, you’ll end up stressed.

You don’t have to worry about the price points where you should put your buying price. I have given you the following:

✅ Top 5 Prices with the Biggest Volume
✅ Top 5 Prices with the HIghest Number of Trades
✅ Volume Weighted Average Price
✅ Top 10 Players’ Buying Average
✅ Top 10 Players’ Selling Average

You can see these as columns on our Long-term Investing watchlist. Please read the Quick Start Guide if you’re a new subscriber. I have explained what these five columns are.

Are you a short-term trader?

You have our short-term trading watchlist. I have also given you those 5 columns I’ve mentioned above. You’re ahead of most traders because you can see processed information that isn’t available for most retail investors.

Still not sure what to do?

You have our Private Clients Forum. Post in the Stock Analysis Requests forum if you want to know my insights toward a stock. Post in the Psychology and Strategies forum if you want to seek clarification about our framework or if you want to confirm your understanding of our trade setup for any stock.

Everything you need is already inside your EquiPicks subscription.

Some service providers only cover long-term investing. Here at Equilyst Analytics, we provide assistance on both long-term investing and short-term trading.

Some service providers only send newsletters. There’s no way for you to ask follow-up questions. They don’t even reply when you email them. At Equilyst Analytics, you can ask through the Private Clients Forum. All conversations are formal and professional in tone. There’s no trolling here.

Subscribe here: https://www.equilyst.com/equipicks/
Testimonials: https://www.equilyst.com/testimonials/

I do not trade or make investment decisions without my Price-Volume Distribution calculator. As a matter-of-factly, this is one of my favorite proprietary tools that I use to help our clients. If you have noticed the screenshots of our Short-term Trading and Long-term Investing watchlists, you will see the Top 5 Prices (Volume) and Top 5 Prices (Trades) columns.

The Top 5 Prices (Volume) column represents the 5 prices that got the biggest volume as of the time indicated on the chart.

The Top 5 Prices (Trades) column shows the 5 prices that earned the highest number of trades as of the time indicated on the chart.

I’m sure you’d like to ask what this tool can do to help you trade more effectively and profitably. I’ll tell you the reasons.

  • It helps us identify reversals, divergences, or false breakouts.
  • It shows at a glance the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades.
  • It helps us see if the majority of the volume is registered near the intraday high, intraday low, or median. The price bar at the top of the chart represents the intraday high. The price bar at the bottom represents the intraday low.
  • It gives us a clue if cross trades happened at a certain price.
  • This chart helps us decide where we should place our buying or selling price because we can see the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades at a glance.
  • It helps us know the stock’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).

Moreover, this is well-explained in our Quick Start Guide. I understand you might be worried that you won’t understand my charts since they’re all proprietary and not common since Equilyst Analytics is the only company who has these tools. There is nothing to worry. Everything is documented in our Quick Start Guide. If you there’s anything that is not quite clear to you, there is a Private Clients Forum where you can ask.

Finally, these price points that got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades are candidates for a buying or selling price. Our clients have a stress-free experience when it comes to trading or investing because we check for them the best candidates for a buying or selling price.

Without further ado, I’ll share with you the VWAP, Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume), and Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades) of DMC, VITA, SCC, NOW, BCOR, GTCAP, LTG, SBS, GREEN, and ECP as of the time indicated on each chart.

VITA

VWAP: 1.8435
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 1.85, 1.84, 1.9, 1.8, 1.8
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 1.85, 1.86, 1.9, 1.88, 1.83

SCC

VWAP: 26.1716
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 26, 26.7, 26.75, 25.9, 25.9
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 26, 25.9, 26.1, 26.7, 26.2

SBS

VWAP: 7.5161
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 7.2, 7.2, 7.2, 7.82, 7.39
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 7.84, 7.38, 7.43, 7.83, 7.29

NOW

VWAP: 3.813
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 3.87, 3.9, 3.7, 3.8, 3.65
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 3.9, 3.87, 3.82, 3.7, 3.94

LTG

VWAP: 17.0662
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 17.12, 17.1, 17.16, 17.14, 16.62
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 17.06, 17.08, 17.1, 17.14, 16.96

GTCAP

VWAP: 949.308
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 940, 960.5, 960.5, 960, 960
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 940, 959.5, 960, 963, 962.5

GREEN

VWAP: 2.2016
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 2.2, 2.22, 2.23, 2.21, 2.24
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 2.2, 2.21, 2.22, 2.23, 2.24

ECP

VWAP: 19.0023
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 20, 19, 18, 20.4, 19.2
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 20, 19, 18, 18.5, 19.2

DMC

VWAP: 12.7674
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 12.7, 12.96, 12.68, 12.94, 12.9
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 12.7, 12.72, 12.68, 12.96, 12.6

BCOR

VWAP: 2.4234
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 2.47, 2.4, 2.45, 2.38, 2.43
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 2.4, 2.47, 2.38, 2.41, 2.45

I’d like you to understand that this is not a stock recommendation. I’ve just picked the top 5 gainers and top 5 losers according to total turnover value as of the time indicated on each chart. May my freemium giveaway help you make wise trade and investment decisions just in case you have any of these stocks. I’m also publishing this free report so you’ll have an actual example of how we help our customers regardless of whether they want to do short-term trading or long-term investing.

If you like our detail-orientedness and ability to explain things in layman’s terms, subscribe to EquiPicks today.

Feel free to comment below if you have questions.

Vitarich Corporation (VITA) found its psychological bottom between 1.35 and 1.40. It successfully broke the resistance at 1.57 last week. Now, it’s 10 ticks away from the new resistance at 1.98.

VITA has returned to its bullish state on a short-term time period when the shorter-term SMA (10) crossed above the longer-term SMA (20) last week. I’d like to see VITA cross above the next resistance at 2.37 before I could say that it’s back on its long-term bullish position.

MACD remains bullish as it moves above the signal and zero lines. RSI is a few points away before entering the classical overbought territory. On the other hand, Stochastic is already faring inside the overbought zone.

However, I snub all these classical interruptions overbought-oversold interpretations for RSI and Stochastic.

I use a trailing stop loss. As long as the price is moving above my trailing stop loss, I can either hold my position or buy more shares.

If and when the price touches my trailing stop loss, it’s time to sell. Trading should not be stressful. I know it’s easier said than done for a newbie. After all, it took me 18 years to reach this level of confidence on stock trading and investing.

Foreign Fund Flow

VITA registered a Net Foreign Buying worth P1,101,670.00 as of December 03, 2018.

On a 30-day trading period, VITA is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP15,497,971.00.

Why do I like to use my Foreign Fund Flow chart?

  • This chart helps us see if foreign investors are significantly buying or selling the stock.
  • It helps us see if the foreign investors are net buyers or net sellers within the chosen time period (e.g. 30 days, 60 days, 90 days).
  • This chart helps us see if foreign investors are contrarian to the current sentiment toward the stock. For example, we can see if foreign investors are aggressively buying the stock even if the stock’s current Day Change is negative and vice versa.

Volume

As of December 3, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of VITA is 68.35% of the previous trading day. This stock’s latest volume is already above its 30-day volume average.

Remember the correlation between price and volume.

  • bullish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bullish
  • bullish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = neutral
  • bearish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bearish
  • bearish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = bearish

Risk Level

VITA has a MODERATE RISK level due to its risk percentage of 64.90%.

Top 10 Players EOD

Trading participants of VITA with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Dec-03-2018 at 03:30PM:
7 out of 40 participants or 17.50% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 40 participants or 25.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.7970
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.7991
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Dec-03-2018 at 03:30PM is from 1.7970 to 1.7991.

Why do I like to use my Top 10 Players chart?

  • It helps us see if the top 10 brokers of the stock are buying the dips, selling the rips, or moving sideways.
  • It ranks all of the brokers who have traded the stock as of the time of checking/
  • It tells us the buying and selling average of each of the top 10 players of the stock on a real-time basis.
  • It tells us the psychological average price of the top 10 players of the stock.
  • It tells us the buying average and selling average of each of the top 10 players.
  • It tells us the cumulative buying average and cumulative selling average of the top 10 players.

Price-Volume Distribution

VWAP: 1.7995
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Trades): 1.85, 1.81, 1.8, 1.86, 1.82
Top 5 Prices (Biggest Volume): 1.85, 1.8, 1.81, 1.88, 1.84

Why do I like to use my Price-Volume Distribution chart?

  • It helps us identify reversals, divergences, or false breakouts.
  • It shows at a glance the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades.
  • It helps us see if the majority of the volume is registered near the intraday high, intraday low, or median. The price bar at the top of the chart represents the intraday high. The price bar at the bottom represents the intraday low.
  • It gives us a clue if cross trades happened at a certain price.
  • This chart helps us decide where we should place our buying or selling price because we can see the prices that got the biggest volume with the highest number of trades at a glance.

Recommendation

If you were able to enter a new position on VITA before the surge in price, just follow your trailing stop loss and you should be fine. It’s either you buy more or hold your current position. This concept of a trailing stop loss is the first rule at Equilyst Analytics. I even wrote a newsletter in Filipino (Tagalog) where I explained this concept with examples. If you’re a subscriber of EquiPicks, you’ll find it on Newsletter Vol 1 No 13.

If you don’t have VITA yet and you’re thinking whether you’ll enter a new position or not, you need to consider the risk level of this stock. If you’re a newbie trader, stick with low-risk stocks for now. If you’re a high-risk trader and your capacity to handle high-risk stocks is gained through experience and skills, I suggest that you buy in tranches and be strict with your trailing stop loss.

You can use the VWAP, Top 5 Prices (Volume), Top 5 Prices (Trades), Top 10 Players’ Buying Average, and Top 10 Players’ Selling Average as candidates for a buying or selling price. If you’re one of our subscribers at EquiPicks, I strongly recommend that you read the updated Quick Start Guide. I have explained in detail how to use these price points as your buying and selling prices.

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