CHP Technical Analysis: Time to Position Within the Dominant Range?

CHP Technical Analysis

Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc. (CHP) closed at P2.77 per share, down by 7.67 percent, as of closing on September 4, 2019. The total turnover value was P102,050,160.00.

Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP) - Daily Chart EOD - 9.4.2019

Foreign investors registered a Net Foreign Buying worth P17,854,470.00. Foreign investors are net buyers year-to-date.

CHP broke below its previous support at P2.88 today. That price point is now acting as CHP’s immediate resistance. The new immediate support is near 2.33.

My 10SMACD combo has been invalid since August 20, 2019. Meaning to say, I have not had any buy signal on CHP since three weeks ago.

If you’re a keen observer, you should have already noticed that CHP goes down by 16 to 18 percent from its higher high before it rebounds again. This has been its behavior since April this year.

Here’s my assignment for you. Check if CHP has already gone down by 16 to 18 percent since it hit the intraday high of P3.39 per share last August 9, 2019.

RSI is in the neutral territory but it’s downward-sloping already.

The risk level of CHP is still in the moderate level but it’s poised to enter the high-risk territory based on its historical volatility score of 69 percent.

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Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: 2.77
VWAP: 2.781112988
Most Traded: 2.79 – 2.77
Most Voluminous: 2.79 – 2.77

The dominant range is between P2.77 and P2.80. That range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high.

Overall, this makes my Momentum Power Indicator bearish.

Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP) - Trade Volume Distribution EOD - 9.4.2019

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of CHP as of Sep-04-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 2.7700.
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 2.7732
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 2.7765
Bonus Info:
26 out of 60 participants or 43.33% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
4 out of 60 participants or 6.67% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Looking at the mood of the top 10 brokers, I do not see any significant interest to buy the dips yet. Nonetheless, don’t snub the fact that 43 percent of all participating brokers registered a 100 percent buying activity on CHP. It’s just that the individual total turnover value of those brokers is not huge enough to trump the bearish total turnover value of those that made it in the top 10 list.

Again, remember the assignment I gave you above. Connect the dots and you’ll know where I’m drifting.

Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP) - True Market Sentiment EOD - 9.4.2019

Recommendations

Do you still have CHP?

If you still have CHP because your trailing stop loss has not been hit yet, I suggest that you hold your position. Do not top up.

If CHP starts at a price lower than P2.77 tomorrow, reduce the percentage of risk you’ve applied in calculating your initial trailing stop loss.

If you attended my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar, this should be crystal-clear to you already by now.

Are you planning to enter a new position on CHP?

It’s not yet the time to do a test-buy within the dominant range. Firstly, my 10SMACD combo is invalid. Secondly, my Momentum Power Indicator is bearish.

Monitor CHP for now. Again, do not forget to do the assignment I gave you. If and when you see a green candlestick, post a request for CHP’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts in our Private Clients Forum (for subscribers only) so we can tell you if the Momentum Power Indicator is already bullish.

Remember also what I taught you in the lesson # 2 and 3 of the Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar. You can pre-empt or skip the validation of the 10SMACD combo provided your answer is a YES to the two questions I mentioned during the seminar. If you already forgot that part, please review the handouts I sent you.

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About the Author
Jaycee De Guzman is an online business strategist, an equity analyst, an entrepreneur, and a computer scientist by profession. Visit his website at www.jayceedeguzman.com.

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