MPI Technical Analysis: Is 5.10 Too Strong to Break?

MPI Technical Analysis

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) closed at 5.00 per share, down by 1.96 percent, on Tuesday, August 20, 2019.

Local investors took the bigger part of the Total Turnover Value that’s why the P82.3 million worth of Net Foreign Buying wasn’t enough to take the percentage change above zero.

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) - Daily Chart EOD - 8.20.2019

Nonetheless, foreign investors remain net buyers for MPI YTD. Since May 2019, they’ve been ending each month on a Net Foreign Buying note.

MPI’s immediate support is near 4.56 while its immediate resistance is at 5.10. As you can see on the trend’s channel, profit-taking prevailed when the price hit the upper bond of the trend’s channel.

I suggest that you keep an eye on 4.75, which is the 61.8 percent retracement of the Up Fibonacci. That level is also near the intersection of the three simple moving averages I’m using (10, 50, 200).

Once the price dives below 4.75, it’ll be more likely for the price to re-test the support range between 4.50 and 4.56.

Despite the red candlestick last Tuesday, my 10SMACD combo remains valid.

RSI is in the neutral level, but it’s already downward-slopping. RSI doesn’t say that much yet at this point.

The risk level of MPI is in a moderate level based on its historical volatility score of 53 percent.

While the +DMI still hovers the -DMI, the ADX is still below 25 points. MPI needs to break above the resistance at 5.10 to pull the ADX score toward 25 points or higher.

But based on the price action last Tuesday, my observation tells me that MPI is more likely to re-test 4.50-4.75.

Nonetheless, I’ll adjust my trading plan according to the prevailing size of trade, volume, and price.

Not because my latest analysis gives me a bearish or bullish overall sentiment, it doesn’t mean I’ll still stick to it even if the prevailing data is already giving me a different overall sentiment.

My evergreen strategy in stock trading and investing adapts to the various conditions of the market. That’s why it’s called “evergreen.”

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Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: 5.00
VWAP: 5.003835909
Most Traded: 5.02 – 5.01
Most Voluminous: 5.02 – 5

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) - Trade Volume Distribution EOD - 8.20.2019

The dominant range is between 4.97 and 5.03. This is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high.

The components of my Momentum Power Indicator are bearish. Therefore, my entire Momentum Power Indicator is bearish.

True Market Sentiment

True Market Sentiment of MPI as of Aug-20-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 5.00.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 5.0066
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 5.0029
Bonus Info:
11 out of 52 participants or 21.15% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 52 participants or 21.15% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) - True Market Sentiment EOD - 8.20.2019

This bearish True Market Sentiment tells me that there was no significant interest to buy the intraday dips yesterdays.

Recommendations

After synthesizing all of these things, my overall sentiment for MPI is bearish.

With my invalid 10SMACD combo, bearish Momentum Power Indicator, and neutral True Market Sentiment, this leads me to my data-driven assessment that the downward trend is more likely to continue.

Take note of all the price points I mentioned above

If you have MPI and if it’s still trading above your trailing stop loss, I suggest that you adjust the percentage of risk initially applied in calculating your reward-to-risk ratio.

I’ve already seen signs of a weakening upward momentum.

Do you still remember what I taught you in Lesson # 6 of The Evergreen Strategy in Stock Trading and Investing seminar? Please review your handouts.

If you don’t have MPI but are planning to enter a new position on this stock, I suggest that you postpone that plan and be on a wait-and-see mode for now.

At least, wait for my Momentum Power Indicator to become bullish again on MPI.

Do you still remember what I said in Lesson # 6 as to when you can only pre-empt the validation of the 10SMACD combo? Again, please review your handouts.

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About the Author
Jaycee De Guzman is an online business strategist, an equity analyst, an entrepreneur, and a computer scientist by profession. Visit his website at www.jayceedeguzman.com.

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