PSEi: Where It Was, Where Is It Going, and What You Should Do Now?
Jaycee De Guzman
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Where is the Philippine Stock Exchange Index now? What you should have done when it was at the 6,800 level? What you should continue doing now?

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has already crossed above the resistance at 7502. It’s faring at 7529.77 as of the time of writing this post.

I find it fair to say that the main bellwether index is already moving in a bullish position in a short-term period as the index is moving above my two shorter-term SMAs, specifically 10SMA and 20SMA. Also, the longer-term SMA is above the shorter one already. The new resistance sits at 7889.

On the other hand, PSEi must close above 7617 for me to say that the index has finally found its track back to the bullish state both on the short-term and long-term time periods.

Am I implying that you should only resurrect your long-term portfolios once the index is moving above the 7600 level?


If you’ve been following my analyses for a while now, you know that I have my own framework in seeing things. As a matter-of-factly, I have developed my own analytical tools instead of relying on indicators, patterns, and other stuff that already came even before I was born.

My buy case for each stock in my long-term investing watchlist has the say whether I should top-up, hold, or sell my position REGARDLESS of the position of the index.

As long as my buy case is intact toward a long-term stock, I will top-up on my position regardless of whether the index is bearish, bullish, or undergoing a market correction.

This explains why I have kept the BUY rating for the stocks that are in our Long-term Investing watchlist. The subscribers of our EquiPicks service know this very well.

PSEi registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P680,476,044.28 as of November 29, 2018.

On a 30-day trading period, PSEi is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP33,104,879,569.73.

As of November 29, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of PSEi is 114.60% of the previous trading day. PSEi’s latest volume is already above its 30-day volume average.

Remember the correlation between price and volume.

  • bullish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bullish
  • bullish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = neutral
  • bearish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bearish
  • bearish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = bearish

By the way, not because it’s a blue-chip stock, it doesn’t mean it’s good to have for the long haul already. You have to do a relative valuation between the stock and its index so will know if the stock is relatively overpriced or underpriced in relation to the performance of the sector where it belongs.

So, to the subscribers of EquiPicks who are looking at our Long-term Investing watchlist, consistently follow your top-up schedule each month. Use the price points I include in the Top 5 Prices (Trades), Top 5 Prices (Volume), VWAP, TTP Buying Ave, and TTP Selling Ave columns as your candidates for your buying price.

If you trusted and followed my principles on long-term investing, you are one of the happiest long-term Filipino investors because:
 you have been able to take advantage of the situation when PSEi was on the 6,800 level
 you were not so stressed thinking what you should do amid that situation because I gave you my data-driven sentiment
 you were not victimized by other people who are freely giving their non-data driven sentiments based on their “I think, I feel, I believe” conviction only

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